Cocoa and Coffee Today - highest price on the world market in decades!

According to an article in Market Watch updated on 22nd December 2024, cocoa was the best performing commodity of 2024, even beating bitcoin (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/cocoas-the-best-performing-commodity-in-2024-and-even-beat-bitcoin-whats-next-b8daf55d?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR1NXJIyij0Y1l7eH-OK5KTUfWmdU7NsIk9NBLkn2JyTXHvxUHSlhXXut1U_aem_xg5B1pKTCJCG3PdyJ-1Y7g&sfnsn=wa) increasing by almost 200% in price in 2024, whereas bitcoin's increase in value in the same period was about 151%...by the way, the closing price of bitcoin in 2024 was about USD124,000/unit. The value of cocoa beans on the world market reached an all time high of USD12, 931/tonne on 18th December, 2024.

In October 2024, the highest recorded price for Robusta coffee futures on the global market was US$5,003 per tonne, observed on 15th October, 2024. By comparison, in October 2024, Arabica coffee prices reached a peak of approximately US$6.102 per kilogram. This translates to about US$6,102 per tonne. This surge was influenced by factors such as adverse weather conditions in major coffee-producing regions and supply chain disruptions. Coffee beans on the world market had its highest increase in price in 10 years according to the Global Coffee Report in its November 2024 edition https://www.gcrmag.com/whats-causing-coffee-market-volatility/).

My concern is that Trinidad and Tobago is not prepared, nor is it preparing to capitalise on the increased prices and high global demand for cocoa and coffee. My understanding is that our local production of cocoa is about an average of 150 tonnes /hectare, compared with about an average of 2,000 tonnes/ hectare in South America. Total production per year in T&T is perhaps less than 500 tonnes/year. There are many reasons for this poor state of affairs, all rather depressing, perhaps I will deal with these at another time.

My main concern is for local coffee production and the lack thereof. Below is a summary of a recent post on my other blog (https://cafevegatt.blogspot.com/) that outlines an opportunity for increasing local Robusta coffee production in T&T.

Trend in Robusta Coffee Prices Over the Past Decade

The price of Robusta coffee on the global market has experienced notable fluctuations over the past 10 years, driven by a combination of climatic, economic, and agricultural factors. Here’s a summary of the key trends:

1. Periods of Stability and Growth

Early 2010s to Mid-2010s: Robusta prices remained relatively stable, supported by consistent production from major producers like Vietnam and Indonesia.

2016–2017: Prices peaked due to lower global stock levels caused by adverse weather in Vietnam, the world’s largest Robusta producer. This period marked a temporary supply shock.

2. Decline and Recovery

2018–2020: Prices fell as global stocks recovered and production in key regions stabilized. This decline was further exacerbated by subdued demand during the COVID-19 pandemic's early phase.

Late 2020: As the world emerged from pandemic-induced lockdowns, Robusta prices began to rise again, driven by increasing demand for instant coffee, which primarily uses Robusta beans.

3. Recent Surge in Prices (2021–2024)

2021: Severe frosts in Brazil and erratic weather patterns in Vietnam led to reduced output, driving prices higher. Supply chain disruptions and rising shipping costs further exacerbated the price hikes.

2023–2024: Persistent weather issues, including drought in Vietnam and shifts in agricultural practices (such as the replacement of coffee trees with durian crops), have significantly reduced Robusta supply. Reports from Vietnam suggest domestic stocks are now completely depleted.

Key Drivers of the Trend

Weather Extremes: Unfavorable climatic conditions in major producing regions like Vietnam and Brazil have repeatedly disrupted production.

Land Use Changes: Vietnamese farmers are shifting away from Robusta coffee cultivation to more lucrative crops like durian, tightening supply further.

Rising Demand: The global demand for instant coffee and lower-cost alternatives to Arabica has sustained upward pressure on prices.

Logistical Challenges: Recent geopolitical disruptions, such as delays in the Suez Canal, have added to costs, indirectly impacting prices.

Outlook

With demand continuing to outpace supply and climate-related risks persisting, the upward trend in Robusta coffee prices is likely to continue in the near term. However, long-term stabilization will depend on improved farming practices, better supply chain management, and addressing climate challenges in key producing regions.

Historically T&T used to produce tonnes of coffee for export to the north. The abandonment and eradication of old coffee estates and the lack of interest in local coffee production by the local agencies entrusted with national agricultural development over the past 3 decades, are key obstacles to increasing coffee production. In comparison, there have been significant efforts in revitalising the cocoa industry over the same time period, by State agencies and others, but those efforts have not resulted in any significant improvement in cocoa production. So what is really the problem? Don't we have enough bright and motivated people in this country to get things right? Perhaps this needs another post as well.

Where should we go with agriculture?

 Morning muse

Possessed with concerns on food production and agriculture in Trinidad and Tobago in general, I I awoke just after 4:00 am today thinking of my next step. At this time of day, it is quiet, calm and free of the usual daily distractions. With a clarity of thought and insight, I decided to first do an update of my coffee blog to include an interesting component that I had missed earlier. Those of you with an interest in coffee may visit: www.cafevegatt.blogspot.com

My thoughts soon returned to: 'what should I do to try and influence at least one aspect of agricultural production or related research and development?' What crop or commodity should my energy be focused on? Needed root crops and vegetables seem to be widely produced locally, but the lack of coordinated production has often led to gluts of particular crop types, where the farmers allow the mature crop to rot in the field because the price in the market is less than the cost of harvest and post harvest handling. As we say locally..."every body and their dog producing it now".

Diversification

Over the past three decades there has been frequent 'talk' on diversification and post harvest processing with some serious attempts at putting such things in place...but little sustained effort on a sufficient scale seems to have survived today. I remember about 7 years ago, in a discussion with a newly appointed Permanent Secretary (PS) in the Ministry of Agriculture at a field station in east Trinidad, I was outlining a proposal for making cassava flour and organising existing cassava farmers to be shareholders of the enterprise. Well, in a strong tone of voice that PS said: "I don't want to hear anything about cassava flour, I am tired of it...it is a good thing you are not in my office, else I would have had you put out!" Ahh, such enlightened leadership, regrettably, is not an uncommon thing today among all walks of life. By the way, wheat flour currently sells for about TT$7/kg while cassava flour (all imported) sells for about TT$85/kg. There is more to that story in terms of follow-up action to be part of a team that visited a South American country to see and get details on setting up a cassava flour facility in Trinidad. But the outcome is more embarrassing for the Ministry of Agriculture and I will spare them at this time.

New opportunity

What kind of crop grows easily here...like a weed even (not that kind of "weed", in case you are thinking of ganja!); that is not yet exploited to its full potential, but if it is properly processed and marketed, will add significant value to peoples lives? Why has Trinidad and Tobago not entered the 'Farmer-ceutical' markets...farmer produced botanicals for medicines and health supplements? Hmmm...is there such an opportunity here. One example of a local plant that grows like a weed in many places, comes easily to my mind...Ruellia tuberosa. Go check it up for yourself.

Several clinical studies have shown its efficacy in reducing blood sugar levels and helping in kidney repair...we don't need to reinvent the research, just keep track of the clinical trials. It is only a matter of time before the big pharmaceutical companies of the north seize the opportunity, patent a formulation and start selling it as a natural diabetic control for big money. By the way, natural products from plants cannot be patented...a formulation with a specific combination of biochemicals however, can be patented. Maybe I should start doing something about this.

The sun is beginning to creep into the sky and the birds have already completed their early morning serenade. So, it is time for me to head out into the bush to start my task for the day. Catch you all next time!

Back again...I hope.

 Time for renewal

So...I have been away from this blog for too long...just fedup with the agricultural situation here in T&T and the lack of a coherent, enlightened and progressive policy environment for agriculture in the country. Of course, the bright UWI graduates in leadership and supervisory positions at the Ministry of Agriculture seem unable to make a tangible and needed difference.

Anyway...a bright spot has emerged after issues of neglect and negligence were highlighted in a recent video...do take a look at the video...

Subsequent to the video getting the Minister's attention, a meeting with the Minister, senior Ministry of Agriculture staff and the farmers were held to decide on the way forward. This eventually led to the allocation of TT$9 million to deal with some of the issues identified in the video. Additionally, several farmers were able to get documentation from the Commissioner of State Land to regularise their land tenure in the area.

Perhaps, all those tonnes of technical studies on agriculture need to be turned into exciting videos and shared widely to stimulate needed action!

Food Security...old talk again?

Apparently, CARICOM through its Council for Trade & Economic Development (COTED) approved a Regional Food & Nutrition Security Policy in October 2010. This little known policy has the following four objectives:

  1. Food Availability - Promote the sustainable production, processing, preparation, commercialization and consumption of safe, affordable, nutritious, high quality Caribbean food commodities/products.
 2. Food Access - Ensure regular access of Caribbean households, especially the poor and vulnerable, to sufficient quantities of safe, affordable, quality food at all times, particularly in response to diverse socioeconomic and natural shocks.
 3. Food Utilization/Nutritional Adequacy - Improve the nutritional status of the Caribbean population, particularly with respect to NCDs including diabetes, hypertension, overweight and obesity.
 4. Stability of Food Supply - Improve the resilience of the region’s national communities and households to natural and socio-economic crises.

The full policy document is available at this link.

The key question is...how do we move from talk to serious, consistent action?

An Enabling Environment for Food Production

  

Premise

1.      Farmers can provide a continuous supply of good quality food.
2.      Farmers can receive a consistent profitable price for produce.

Enabling Factors

Land

1. no flooding or effective flood control;
2. good vehicular access road;
3. leases with reasonable terms provided (state lands).

Water

4. year round supply of water for farm operations so as to minimise dependence on rain-fed food production.

Note: Calculate crop water use based on acreage to be cultivated to ensure water for irrigation will be available (similar calculation for animal husbandry). Need to understand when in the life cycle of the various crops that there will be a greater demand for water.

Praedial Larceny

5. effective control
6. or initially at least, rapid response and thorough investigation.

Planting Material

7. availability of tried and tested varieties suited to local conditions which may vary based on season;
8. disease and pest free planting material in sufficient quantity when needed;
9. need to have farmers understand the particular characteristics of each variety to be used in the field.

Technical Advice

10. primarily pest and disease control with knowledge specific to crops planted or animals reared
11. ministry should re-engineer its training of farmers and provide timely on-farm assistance (same-day preferred);
12. pest and disease symptoms and control information for all of the commercially produced crops in T&T should additionally be in the form of an interactive CDROM for use by all farmers (assisted by their computer savvy children where needed);
13. ministry should also produce high quality large posters on disease and pest symptoms, including nutritional deficiencies, and control measures; to be promoted in farming communities…..many existing posters not appropriately designed for farmers;
14. awareness campaign on the negative impacts of pesticides on humans, using real life examples from T&T, and alternative pest control measures that work in T&T;
15. soil tests must be done for all areas before cultivation, with results delivered in a timely manner, including recommendations specific to the crop type…..it can take up to 6 months to get the results from the ministry’s lab at Centeno;
16. re-introduce the  use of “green-manure” (with mung bean, crotalaria, and other legumes) to re-juvenate soils and increase organic content;
17. ministry needs to produce large charts on appropriate, crop specific agrochemical use for farmers as well as guidance to reduce agrochemical use;
18. train farmers in proper method of harvest for specific crops as well as sanitizing so as to help maintain quality to the consumer;
19. ministry should design or source appropriate crop specific crates for field packing of produce;
20. train farmers in proper packing and stacking of produce to minimise damage;
21. ministry must have updated and realistic cost of production models, even for integrated farming systems;
22. assist farmers in finding ways to lower cost of production without the sacrifice of produce quality.

 What are your views on these points outlined above?

 

A word about social media...

I am not convinced that our decision makers at the government institutions, farmer groups, and farmer support agencies fully understand how technology and technology uses are developing. I am not yet convinced that we sufficiently understand how social media as an example, could be harnessed to improve farmer access to marketing information and buyers or crop and pest control advice. Have a look at the short video below and think about how farmers and farm support stakeholders could benefit from the revolution in social media.

Appropriate Infrastructure - protected agriculture (greenhouse)

The Government is offering to lease lands for food production, including the establishment of green houses. The video clip below outlines the types and appropriateness of different structures for protected agriculture, commonly referred to as greenhouses. Perhaps you can spot what is needed to improve on the green house system often seen in Trinidad and Tobago.